Air Show China demonstrated that Chinese air power is leaving behind its legacy Russian jets in favour of nationally developed platforms.
One of the main stars of the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition that took place in Zhuhai, Guangdong province (12-17 November) was the Shenyang J-35A fighter. The design is an F-35-looking analogue with two engines instead of the single-engine design of the U.S. jet that now is being touted as the next-generation carrier-fighter for the People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force (PLAN AF). Mocked a decade ago as a lacklustre-performing aeroplane it emerged in a new, re-designed form and was the star of this year’s Zhuhai event.
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) new-generation fighters cause observers to ask if there is a new ranking of which country is now in the lead in the development of combat aircraft?
Harkening back to the Cold War, there was definitely a competition between the U.S. and the USSR. Looking at the skies above Le Bourget in 1989, the competition was clearly between the Sukhoi Su-27 and Mikoyan MiG-29 v. the General Dynamics (now Lockheed Martin) F-16, McDonnell Douglas (now Boeing) F/A-18 and the Rafale.
But that was – in the universe of the military aerospace industry – in a galaxy far, far away. This year, the line up of which players occupy what position has clearly changed.
In November 2024, the Air Show China expo celebrated the 28th year of its founding. If there is now a theme to this event it is that the “who’s on first” aspect of this dynamic has definitely altered.
In the early 2000s this expo had a very distinctive character. Russia’s aerospace sector, which at the time was the main supplier of almost every major weapon system to the PRC had an overwhelming presence. That meant that there were two types of aeroplanes in the flight display at the time. These were: 1) Chinese versions of previous-generation aircraft initially built in the USSR like the Mikoyan MiG-21, and, 2) 1980s Russian aircraft like the Sukhoi Su-27 that Chinese industry were going to reverse-engineer and copy within the next few years.
Both categories of Chinese fighters were no match for the western models that they would have to confront in any kind of an international conflict. Even in the early 1990s, the best European and U.S. designs were heads and tails above the best that Beijing and Moscow could throw into a conflict against them.
Future Shock
Moving into the future and only two and a half years ago, the Vice Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral William Lescher, told the House Armed Services Committee that the tables have since turned.
China clearly is the pacing threat for the U.S. military, he said. “The Navy brings a strong view that the decade of concern is 2020 — and in some respects, that’s not a universal view in the department. But we consistently believe and have thought that that’s the decade that we see of peak risk and that we’re going to be ready for.”
His assessment was not far behind the sentiments of the Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, who told a conference in the U.S. at about almost the same time, that, “despite current events, the pacing challenge remains China.”
This “pacing change“ narrative remains the most apt characterisation of today’s PRC v. the collective West situation in the combat aircraft arena.
At this year’s Zhuhai, the PLAAF’s rapidly expanding Chendgu J-20 stealth fighter fleet, which made its first flight in January 2010, was one of the big stories. The J-20 is a platform that has grown in capacity and performance – mostly thanks to improvements in radar technology, radar systems and propulsion.
As one Asian analyst observed, “the PRC is gaining fast on the U.S. as it [Washington] grapples with rising costs, modernisation delays and internal debates over the future of air dominance.”
According to numerous reports, in 2024 the PLAAF expanded its fleet of J-20 “Mighty Dragon” fifth-generation fighters. There are 12 air brigades of this type as of May 2024. This is a notable increase from just 40 of this type in service in early 2022. Some 70 additional aircraft have entered service in the past year alone.
The J-20 was designed to be the PRC foil against the U.S. Lockheed Martin F-22A and F-35 and it is one of the key platforms designed to be the ‘point of the spear’ in the PRC’s grand project to extend Beijing’s power beyond its littoral waters. That goal is paramount to these ambitions in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and Western Pacific.
Consequently, the U.S. Navy and its allies are about to confront an entirely new generation of combat systems in this part of the world, all showcased in Zhuhai.
Beijing’s List
Overall, Beijing is planning to make the PLAAF and PLAN AF all-5th generation forces in the Asia-Pacific region. They will replace the older Shenyang J-11 series (copies of the Russian Su-27) and the comparable Su-27SK models originally sold to the PRC in 1991 with the J-20.
Analysts looking at the J-20 of today point out that the aircraft has evolved significantly in the past 13 years. The most notable of these improvements are the swapping out of the Russian 1980s-design Lyulka AL-31F engines with the PRC’s Shenyang 5th-generation Emei WS-15 engine.
“Cutting the cord, so to speak, of China’s decades of reliance on Russian engines may be one of the most significant advancements that Beijing can point to in its building a military machine that can confront the U.S.,” said a retired US intelligence officer who specialised in the China threat during his career.
“China has historically lagged in this area of technology but now seems to be catching up with the rest of us in the West,” he continued.
The new and improved [Chengdu] J-20 is only one of signs that the U.S. has its hands full in its competition with the PRC. Chengdu’s rival, the Shenyang Aerospace Corporation, had their own innovations that they were showcasing at Zhuhai this year. Two modernised versions of the carrier-capable J-15 (the Shenyang design team’s copy of the Russian Su-33) made their debut in Zhuhai.
One is the J-15T, a new variant that permits the aircraft to be launched with a catapult instead of taking off from the ski-ramp carrier deck of the PLAN CV-16 Varyag and CV-17 Shandong. Another is the F-15D, an EW platform designed to be a counter to the USN’s Boeing EA-18G Growler.
The U.S. clearly faces a growing challenge in the region but has not come up with a definitive answer. Is it the USAF 6th-generation Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter or a larger number of less-expensive platforms like the Boeing F-15EX. Ditto for the USN.
What aircraft replaces the F/A-18E/F in the naval aviation face-off against a PLAN that has just launched its third carrier. This decade holds the answer to these questions.
by Reuben F. Johnson
