As a middle power with just 27 million inhabitants, Australia has quite an impressively equipped military. Its 2024/25 defence budget allocated a record A$55.7 billion (US$36.8 billion), up 6.3% from the preceding year, and this included A$16.7 billion for new acquisitions.
Before examining what future requirements the Australian Defence Force (ADF) has, it is useful to review some achievements in the past year. For example, the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) received its final nine Lockheed Martin F-35A fighters, these possessing the Technology Refresh 3 upgrade that will be retrofitted to the rest of the F-35A fleet as well. The nonet’s arrival brought to completion the air force’s full complement of 72 F-35As, these operating alongside Boeing EA-18G Growlers and F/A-18F Super Hornets in what is a very modern combat fleet. Another 2024 highlight for the RAAF was receipt of the first of four Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).
The USA is busily meeting Australian Army demand for new equipment too, with the first 46 out of 75 M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams tanks having reached Australian shores. Seven additional Sikorsky UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters arrived last year; the army has ten in service, with more arriving this year to fill the large gap left by the inexplicable demise of the MRH90 Taipan. The army is greatly boosting amphibious sealift too, with Austal contracted to build 18 of Birdon’s 50m-long Landing Craft Medium vessels under Project Land 8710 Phase 1A. Then, Damen’s LST 100 design was selected last November for the Landing Craft Heavy requirement under Phase 2.
As for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN), its vessels fired three types of missile for the first time last year – the Tomahawk cruise missile, SM-6 and Naval Strike Missile (NSM). Elsewhere, BAE Systems commenced construction of the first Hunter-class frigate last year, and the first Anduril Ghost Shark autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) prototype was delivered. Importantly, Canberra shortlisted two designs for its general-purpose frigate project – more on that shortly.
Overall, ADF acquisitions reached a record A$16.6 billion in FY2023-24, of which the government claimed 54% of expenditure went to domestic industry. Additionally, the ADF spent A$16.4 billion sustaining existing equipment, of which Australian industry accounted for 79%.
Naval procurements
Chewing up massive chunks of the defence budget, the acquisition of hugely expensive nuclear-powered attack submarines broodily looms over the RAN. Because it will take years for the first submarines to arrive, a capability gap exists as six existing Collins-class submarines soldier on. The government’s approach is to prolong the life of the Collins class rather than to purchase interim conventional submarines. AUVs could help take up some of the slack, with the RAN investing in Anduril’s Ghost Shark. However, there is room for other AUVs to be acquired to fulfil specific roles such as mine countermeasures.
Progress is being made on procuring eleven off-the-shelf, general-purpose frigates of at least Anzac-class size to “provide maritime and land strike, air defence and escort capabilities … in order to secure maritime trade routes and our northern approaches”. The first three of these Project Sea 3000 warships will be constructed overseas, and the remainder in Western Australia. In May 2024 the navy had requested information from the following five players: the thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) MEKO A-200, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Mogami class, Hyundai Heavy Industries/Hanwha Ocean FFX Batch II/III and Navantia Alfa 3000.
These were further shortlisted last November, with the German and Japanese designs making the cut. In fact, the selection comprises three platforms since TKMS is proffering both a standard 3,700-tonne A-200, plus a customised 4,700-tonne A-210 configuration boasting equipment more common to the RAN. One of the MEKO’s advantages is that current Anzac-class frigates were based on the older MEKO 200.
It must be remembered that Japan is a novice at exporting advanced naval vessels but, nonetheless, Tokyo is enthusiastically backing what it considers a strategic deal for its 4,800-tonne 06FFM frigates. Japan’s Ministry of Defence said, “Based on this policy, this joint development and production project will contribute to significantly improving interoperability and compatibility with Australia, strengthen the foundation for shipbuilding and maintenance in the Indo-Pacific region, and improve the future capabilities of Japan’s ships.” Japan’s navy will adopt the first of these same improved warships in FY2028; they are larger and more heavily armed than the 3,900-tonne Mogami-class frigates currently under construction.
Selection of the winning design should occur this year to allow first cutting of steel in 2026, and delivery later this decade. However, this whole US$6.4 billion project is beset by valid criticisms. The programme is being rushed through because of historical governmental indecision and lack of foresight. With the Chinese military threat looming and the Anzac class already starting to retire, this constitutes a kneejerk reaction to obtain new frigates as soon as possible. Worryingly, the RAN now has the fewest surface combatants – just ten – at any time since World War II.
Furthermore, why is the RAN seeking a platform bearing minimal compatibility with other vessels already in service? Other vessels sport Saab’s 9LV combat management system and CEA Technologies radars, for example, but these are not mandated on the general-purpose frigates. Despite the logistical and training burden, officials claim it is a nonissue. Minister for Defence Industry and Capability Delivery Pat Conroy insisted, “We’ve operated multiple combat management systems in the past. When I talk to the chief of navy, his focus is on getting more hulls in the water – more hulls with very exciting capability.” Conroy added, “It’s all about speed to capability – we need to urgently recapitalise the navy.”
The navy’s mine countermeasure (MCM) capabilities were supposed to be boosted by the well-named Project Sea 1905 (1905 in Roman numerals is MCMV!). A Phase 1 request for information was released in January 2020, seeking shore-based and ship-based toolboxes of “scalable and versatile” autonomous systems to detect, localise and destroy sea mines. Saab Australia and Exail had been shortlisted before Defence suddenly cancelled the effort in April 2024. Ultimately, there was not enough money in the kitty.
Tranche 2 would have followed up with replacements for Huon-class minehunters and Leeuwin-class hydrographic survey ships in the mid-2020s. The ADF told Asian Military Review: “Defence requirements for maritime mine countermeasures effects have changed, in line with the National Defence Strategy and associated Integrated Investment Program.” However, neither document directly addresses the MCM realm.
Despite Sea 1905’s cancellation, Antony Penn, Exail’s Chief Commercial Officer, told AMR that his company has not given up. “Exail remains committed to opportunities to contribute to Australia’s defence needs, particularly in the areas of undersea and seabed warfare. We’ve developed strong partnerships with Australian defence industry leaders with specialist capabilities, ensuring we’re ready to provide solutions that align with Australia’s strategic objectives.”
Meanwhile, Saab Australia as systems integrator had partnered with Leidos (software), Sonartech Atlas (unmanned surface vessels and AUVs) and SeaBytes (mission management system) for Sea 1905. Its solution included the Double Eagle for mine detection, identification and neutralisation, plus the Multi-Shot Mine Neutralisation System. Andy Keough, Saab Australia’s Managing Director, told AMR, “The RAN has an enduring requirement for an MCM capability – our expertise means we remain ready for future opportunities in the Australian market, offering both advanced MCM products and critical systems integration.”
With Sea 1905 canned, a Defence spokesperson said, “The deployable mine countermeasure capability utilises crewed and uncrewed surface vessels paired with remote and autonomous underwater vehicles.” Regardless, whether acknowledged or not, the RAN has mine warfare capability gaps as its minehunters are pensioned off without any direct replacement. Just two Huon-class minehunters and one hydrographic vessel remain.
Jennifer Parker, an Expert Associate at the National Security College, Australian National University, warned, “The justification for cancelling the mine warfare ship programme was that autonomous systems would replace the capability. However, without a ship to deploy from, these systems cannot cover the full spectrum of operations needed to protect Australia’s shipping routes from naval mines – something it should expect in the event of a conflict in the region.”
After cancelling selection of Schiebel’s S-100 Camcopter as the navy’s future shipborne UAV, and divesting the existing S-100 fleet, the RAN is now relying on Project DEF129 – a merger of army and navy UAV programmes – for an eventual solution. The Army Aviation Command said it is “working through the early stages of requirements for those systems, and understanding what the acquisition pathway will look like”. The army already operates Insitu’s RQ-21A Integrator.
Land procurements
The army is inducting copious amounts of new equipment: M1A2 SEPv3 tanks, Abrams-based combat engineering vehicles, HIMARS, Boxer 8×8 reconnaissance vehicles, AS21 Redback infantry fighting vehicles, AS9 Huntsman 155mm self-propelled howitzers, NASAMS air defence systems, AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and UH-60M Black Hawks.
Yet to be decided, though, is the renamed Project Land 8113 Phase 2 requirement for land-based maritime strike, especially to protect Australia’s northern archipelagic area. Canberra has declared a two-horse race to equip the Adelaide-based 10th Brigade with anti-ship missiles. Thales Australia and Kongsberg created the StrikeMaster, a Bushmaster vehicle carrying two NSMs, while Lockheed Martin is proposing HIMARS armed with Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM).
John Fry, Managing Director of Kongsberg Defence Australia, told AMR that “we genuinely believe the Naval Strike Missile Coastal Defence System, with a launcher like StrikeMaster, could be a great candidate for that requirement”. He added, “It’s essentially the same configuration what the US Marine Corps are actually building now under their Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) programme”. Fry highlighted that StrikeMasters can be built in Australia quickly: vehicles come from Thales Australia, combined with weapon sleds already used on RAN warships, fire control centres manufactured for NASAMS, and 185+km-range NSMs that begin production at a new Kongsberg factory in Newcastle in 2027.
As for Lockheed Martin’s solution, PrSMs are launched from the same M142 HIMARS that the army is acquiring. The first HIMARS batch is due in Australia ahead of schedule in Q1 2025, and the government has already announced it will acquire the PrSM, of which it is a paid-up co-developer. Australia is exploring domestic PrSM production, and Wayne Harrison, International Business Development Principal at Lockheed Martin, said PrSM Increment 2 meets Australia’s maritime strike requirement. This missile variant has a 400+km range and a smart seeker to hit moving targets on land or sea.
Describing it as “a compelling option”, Harrison commented, “We believe PrSM Increment 2 will be able to interdict the sea lanes at ranges of 400+km, especially if you put this thing in a C-130 and you’re able to move it around the archipelagos where most likely the ADF will be engaged. The enemy doesn’t really know where these launchers are, because there are numerous C-130-capable airfields. You’ve got two PrSMs in there that can interdict a ship, and we believe that will meet the land-based, maritime strike mission set.”
A glaring ADF capability gap is counter-UAV (C-UAS) systems to protect infrastructure, bases, dismounted personnel and vehicles. Project Land 156 will address the threat posed by group 1 and 2 UAVs weighing up to 55kg. An approach to market occurred last November, which sought a systems integration partner to manage C-UAS acquisitions. However, with a request for tender due in January, a minimum viable capability is still not expected until 2032. Australia has a vibrant industry producing C-UAS systems, including Acacia, Boresight, Codarra, Department 13, DroneShield, EOS and Silentium, all of whom should be interested in Land 156. DroneShield has delivered around 1,000 devices to Ukraine, whilst EOS can offer its Slinger remote-controlled weapon station.
Australia has initially purchased Switchblade 300 loitering munitions, but is also exploring local solutions like Innovaero’s One-Way Loitering (OWL). The Ukraine conflict has illustrated how such weapons are indispensable in modern warfare, so more Australian acquisitions should be expected.
Unmanned ground vehicles (UGV) may take off too, figuratively speaking. The Australian Army is currently at the experimental stage and, once requirements fructify, purchases could follow. The army’s new experimental unit (1st Armoured Regiment) is presently trialling locally developed GaardTech Jaegar-C and DefendTex Banshee sacrificial UGVs, the surveillance-oriented Ground Uncrewed System (GUS) from Outlook Industries, the Cyborg Dynamics Engineering Warfighter (based on a tracked BIA5 platform) and M113AS4-based Optionally Crewed Combat Vehicles. The army also has Hunter WOLF 6×6 UGVs.
A future option is the Autonomous Tactical Light Armour System (ATLAS) 8×8 UGV, with BAE Systems Australia unveiling it last year armed with a 25mm cannon. A company representative told AMR that it will participate in ADF exercises this year.
Undecided is Land 8710 Phase 1B, a replacement of LARC-V amphibious logistics vehicles. Unfortunately, as money is hoovered up by submarines, new infantry equipment is being put on hold. Land 159 Tranche 2 (later rolled into Land 300) – supposed to deliver close-combat assault rifles, grenades and a family of light, medium and heavy machine guns – is deferred indefinitely. Tranche 3’s lightweight automatic grenade launchers, less-than-lethal munitions and command-detonated munitions are correspondingly delayed.
Air procurements
The RAAF has a modern aircraft fleet. Twenty replacement C-130J Super Hercules are on the way, but four MC-55A Peregrine electronic warfare aircraft are facing delays. Other incoming platforms are the MQ-28A Ghost Bat unmanned loyal wingman (with eight prototypes built and three second-generation prototypes coming), although there is no obvious desire to field something like the MQ-9B Reaper. Defence said future UAV investments would “work together and complement crewed systems”. This leaves the door ajar for manned-unmanned teaming such as incoming Apache helicopters cooperating with armed UAVs like the Gray Eagle, for example.
With its Super Hornets due for replacement in the mid-2030s, the RAAF must also look ahead to new fighter platforms beyond the F-35A. Options include the American Next-Generation Air Dominance programme, the European-Japanese Global Combat Air Program or the French-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System.
The RAAF plans to retire its Hawk 127 jet trainers by 2032. To achieve this, a Project Air 6002 Phase 1 contract for new lead-in fighter trainers would need to be signed by 2027. The RAAF needs 30-40 aircraft, and four contenders promoted their wares at Avalon Airshow 2023: BAE Systems’ Hawk AJT, Boeing’s T-7A Red Hawk, Korea Aerospace Industries’ FA-50 and Leonardo’s M-346.
Ground-based air defence beyond the range of NASAMS is non-existent. The ADF is working on the underpinning architecture via the Lockheed Martin Australia-led Project Air 6500 Joint Air Battle Management System, but Project Air 6502 Phase 1’s ambit of a deployable, medium-range, ground-based, air defence system remains quiet. Contenders include American systems like Patriot and THAAD, or European systems from the likes of MBDA.
Another victim of belt-tightening was Joint Project 9102, designed to give Australia its first ever sovereign satellite communications (SATCOM) network. Lockheed Martin Australia was selected in April 2023, but then the government suddenly cancelled the multi-billion-dollar programme last November. The system was to feature geostationary communications satellites, multiple ground stations, integrated SATCOM management system and two SATCOM operations centres. Rather than relying on access to foreign systems like the US Wideband Global SATCOM constellation, Australia will still need its own multi-orbit satellite network in the future.
by Gordon Arthur
